Is it possible to predict the next new successful trend?

by Adrian Sroka
25th February 2013

I have often heard that there is no way of knowing what the next big thing will be. But can want-to-be writers take a guide from hollywood.

Those of you that write science fiction should take note, that the next film in the successful Star Wars series is due out in 2015. The films, and merchandising rights have earned hundreds of milion of dollars, and havebeen sold for much more. Is this a good time to be wrting science fiction for publication in 2015?

Do you believe that insider knowledge of what Hollywood intends to produce would influence you to write a novel on similar lines?

Replies

I had to jump in here, 2 1/2 years after this question was posted. I agree with Constantin, Laura, and Jonathan, but I'd go one further. Laura wrote: "You should write what you have a passion for because more often than not, the passion will come across to the reader and will make it 10x more successful than a book you've written just to try and get a bit of money."

This is good, but I believe that you should rid your mind of ANY consideration of material gain and write what you have to write. I'd rather write a book that I'm 100% proud of which I have to GIVE away to friends and strangers, than a book that I'm ever so slightly ashamed of which makes me a millionaire.

I have no personal experience of the latter, it's true, but several experiences of the former... and they've been worth it.

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Jimmy
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Jimmy Hollis i Dickson
08/09/2015

I still think you should write what you want and not be coerced by someone with a crystal ball who believes they know what the next big thing is.

Chaos theory basically says that for every event there are an infinite number of possible outcomes.

Since I don't think I could ever write 'to order' I guess I'll stick with that thought ;)

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Jonathan Hopkins
26/02/2013

Hollywood makes things happen. The film industry spends so much money on films it virtually guarantees success.

I have never been one to follow trends or team up withth masses. I write historical fiction and have no intention of writing science fiction.

The Genre of my novel is Chivalric with elements of fantasy.

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